The Path Forward for America
In one way the future is clear: the U.S. is becoming multi-ethnic, and in 30 years whites will no longer be the majority. But the path we chose now will have a major impact on how this nation looks in that future.
According to the Census Bureau, the U.S. will become majority minority in 2045. The estimates are that whites will comprise only 49.7% of the population, Hispanics 24.6%, Blacks 13.1%, Asians 7.9% and multi-racial 3.8%. And because of higher birth rates among some minorities, the white share of the population will continue to shrink.
The choices we make now will impact what this multi-ethnic country will be like. One option is for the white majority to try to maintain the status quo and do everything we can to maintain political power. The minority population is much younger, so whites will still constitute the majority of the adult population until about 2060.
But if we try to hold on to political power, we will eventually have apartheid. We will become South Africa, where a small group of whites controlled most of the wealth, most of the major companies, and through various political and legal machinations, the government.
This is exactly the path the Trump administration is taking. They are trying to manipulate the census to ensure an undercount of minorities, which will allow white areas to maintain disproportionate political representation. They’re also working to disenfranchise minorities to limit their political participation and thus maintain white political dominance.
But this is not sustainable. Eventually, due to the forces of demographics, minorities will achieve a critical mass, and whites will lose political control. And when that happens there are two likely outcomes, both of which we’ve seen in recent history.
One outcome is the emergence of a magnanimous figure — a Nelson Mandela — who rises to power and guides the nation to a harmonious multi-cultural future. Another is the emergence of a malevolent figure — a Robert Mugabe — who comes to power and forcibly redistributes wealth, stripping it from the old majority and giving it to the new majority (while likely skimming off a huge share for his cronies.) History shows that the Mugabes are more common than the Mandelas. And honestly, who could blame people for choosing this path. Why should they want to be charitable when they were never treated fairly?
The better solution is to recognize the inevitable and take the opportunity to ensure that those in the minority — those who have historically been discriminated against — are treated fairly. That way, when they are in the majority, they will act fairly.
The way to do this is to remove the historic and systematic barriers to minority achievement.
We need to recognize — and fix — the fact that minority schools are underfunded, and minority students are disproportionately punished for the same types of infractions as white students. We need to recognize that underfunding and over punishment results in fewer minorities going on to higher education and to gain advanced professional degrees. In a nation where 25% of the population is Hispanic, about 25% of the doctors should be as well.
We need to recognize — and fix — the fact that minority communities are overpoliced. Minorities are disproportionately arrested and prosecuted for the same crimes as whites, and are then sentenced to significantly harsher punishment for those crimes. This over-criminalization leads to a lifetime of lost opportunities. As but one example, statistically blacks use drugs at about the same rate as whites, but are much more likely to be arrested, prosecuted, convicted, and incarcerated than whites. And this felony conviction prevents these minority youth from joining the military, gaining access to certain universities, and obtaining student loans for any advanced education.
These changes must happen as soon as possible. Because, make no mistake, every day that the present situation continues there will be one more future Mugabe and one less future Mandela.
